The latest data reveals that new listings have risen for the fourth consecutive quarter compared to the previous year. Much of the gains have occurred in the upper price ranges of each property type, as rising prices and persistently high lending rates are encouraging more sellers to list their properties. The increase in new listings compared to sales caused the sales-to-new listings ratio to fall below 80 percent for the first time since Q1 2023. While this shift has supported some inventory gains, it is important to note that the market continues to favour sellers with a Q2 sales-to-new-listings ratio of 75 percent and a months-of-supply of one month.
In the second quarter, sales slowed by three percent compared to the same period last year. The decline was driven by lower-priced properties, where supply levels are the lowest. Despite this slowdown, sales levels remained 29 percent above long-term trends. After the first half of the year, sales were nearly six percent higher than last year's levels.
“The unexpected surge in migration over the past two years has contributed to the demand growth and supply challenges experienced in the Calgary market,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. “While we still have to work through the pent-up demand, slowing migration levels and supply gains in the resale and new home markets should start to support more balanced conditions, taking some of the pressure off home prices.”
So far this year, home prices have risen by 10 percent, with the most significant gain occurring in row properties at 19 percent and the lowest growth of 13 percent in detached and semi-detached homes. Moving forward, increased supply generated through the new home sector will help support a better-supplied rental and ownership market, reducing pressure on home prices. Slowing price growth is anticipated throughout the second half of the year as supply levels improve. However, conditions will vary based on property type and price range. Much of the supply growth is expected to impact higher-priced properties, slowing their growth. Meanwhile, persistently tight conditions for the most affordable properties will continue to drive further price increases.
ECONOMIC UPDATE
Source: CREB®
HOUSING MARKET
Detached
New listings picked up in the second quarter thanks to gains for homes priced above $600,000. Sales also rose for these higher-priced homes, but not enough to offset declines for lower-priced homes with limited supply. While these adjustments did cause the market to shift away from the tighter conditions reported in the first quarter, the market continues favouring the seller, driving quarterly and year-over-year price gains.
Source: CREB®
Semi-Detached
New listings improved in the second quarter relative to sales. However, shifts in sales and new listings did little to impact inventory levels, which averaged 54 percent below long-term trends in the second quarter. With an average of one month of supply throughout the second quarter, we saw further upward pressure on prices.
Source: CREB®
Row
While new listings for row homes improved, so did the sales, keeping the sales-to-new listings ratio elevated at 82 percent and preventing any significant changes to inventory levels. While supply remained similar to last year’s low levels, there was a significant decline for units priced below $400,000, nearly offsetting the gains in the upper ranges. Overall, the persistently tight conditions drove significant price growth both quarterly and year-over-year.
Source: CREB®
Apartment
Second quarter sales reached a record high, as purchasers sought relatively affordable products in the Calgary market. At the same time, new listings also rose to record high levels this quarter. The gain in new listings outpaced sales gains, and the sales-to-new-listings ratio fell to 74 percent. While the gain took some of the pressure of quarterly price growth compared to the previous quarter, apartment condominium prices still rose by 20 percent compared to last year at this time. Like other property types, the most affordable sector of the market struggled with lower-priced supply.
Source: CREB®